Just a quick analysis taken from Yahoo News. I think this is pretty accurate.
“War in Iraq has swollen the ranks of al Qaeda and galvanized the Islamic militant group’s will, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said on Wednesday in its annual report.
“The 2003-2004 edition of the British-based think-tank’s annual bible for defense analysts, The Military Balance, said Washington’s assertions after the Iraq conflict that it had turned the corner in the war on terror were “over-confident.”
“The report, widely considered an authoritative text on the military capabilities of states and militant groups worldwide, could prove fodder for critics of the U.S.-British invasion and of the reconstruction effort that has followed in Iraq.
“Washington must impose security in Iraq to prevent the country from “ripening into a cause celebre for radical Islamic terrorists,” it concluded. “Nation-building” in Iraq was paramount and might require more troops than initially planned.
“”On the plus side, war in Iraq has denied al Qaeda a potential supplier of weapons of mass destruction and discouraged state sponsors of terrorism from continuing to support it,” the report said.
“”On the minus side, war in Iraq has probably inflamed radical passions among Muslims and thus increased al Qaeda’s recruiting power and morale and, at least marginally, its operating capability,” it said.
“”The immediate effect of the war may have been to isolate further al Qaeda from any potential state supporters while also swelling its ranks and galvanizing its will.””