This weekend is the Belmont Stakes race, in which Smarty Jones attempts to win the Triple Crown. As has been my habit the past couple of years, I will be betting on this particular horserace.
Smarty Jones is running at 2-5 odds, which means a WEAK payout, but you’d be hardpressed to find a contender among the other 8 horses that can take him. Chances are high I’ll pick him for a Win at Belmont. Because it such a strong possibility that he’ll win, I’m tempted to go with an Exacta bet, which is picking the first and second place horse.
At this point I’m torn. I could go for Eddington, who will be in Post 8 right next to Post 9 seated Smarty Jones and came in third at Preakness. I can see SJ egging on Eddington (10-1 odds), and since they’ll both be on the outside, it’s quite possible that these two horses could battle it out for the lead in the first turn, regardless of being on the outside of the field.
Another horse to consider is Purge (5-1 odds), who could be a contender despite losing to Smarty Jones in a shorter race. Maybe he needs that final stretch to really gain the speed needed to give Smarty Jones a run for his money? Purge is also located in Post 2 – a nice inside slot which means he could have an easier time getting a leading spot in the first turn and take advantage of less track time by building up his speed for that final stretch.
I thought briefly about Rock Hard Ten (8-1 odds, Post 5), but I read today about his behavior at Preakness and opted against it. Apparently the horse was a bit moody while waiting to race and actually caused a ruckus in the stables. Supposedly the horse doesn’t like BIG CROWDED RACES. Uh…hello? Potential Triple Crown winner at Belmont? Methinks it’ll be a RECORD crowd at Belmont this weekend, which doesn’t bode well for a people-shy horse.
So it’s between Purge and Eddington, with a strong lean towards Eddington mainly due to Post Position. I’ll wait and place my bet tomorrow on my lunch hour, and to make sure either of those horses don’t scratch in the next 24 hours.
I heard on the radio this morning that unless something catastrophic happens tomorrow, Smarty Jones is a shoe-in to win.
The guy also said it’s a toss up between Purge and Rock Hard Ten for 2nd and 3rd.
You betting Exacta?
Well, I don’t know who your guy is, but I’m still leaning more towards Eddington, with Purge right behind him. Don’t know about doing the Exacta – at least if I do a WPS bet I get SOME money regardless of where they place in the top three.
Well, I did more reading this morning with some updated horse analysis, and while Eddington ran a GREAT practice run, I may go with Rock Hard Ten after all. One thing I didn’t read in my research yesterday is that RHT has run at Belmont a LOT and knows the turf very well, whereas Smarty Jones hasn’t run at Belmont EVEN ONCE. This gives RHT an edge for second even if he’s nervous about the crowds.
So it looks like I’ll go ahead and go with an Exacta bet ($10) on Smarty Jones/RHT and see how I do.
Don’t be surprised if you get a phone call for clarification like last time. 😉
If you want clarification, see the post I just made (called Bets Have Been Placed), where I outline exactly which horses I bet on.